Gregor Betz
Prediction or Prophecy?
The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences
Paperback Engels 2006 2006e druk 9783835002234Levertijd ongeveer 9 werkdagen
Gratis verzonden
Samenvatting
Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?
Specificaties
ISBN13:9783835002234
Taal:Engels
Bindwijze:paperback
Aantal pagina's:280
Uitgever:Deutscher Universitätsverlag
Druk:2006
Hoofdrubriek:Economie, Economie, Algemeen management
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Inhoudsopgave
Recent performance of economic forecasts
A historical perspective on economic forecast performance
Forecast performance in natural sciences
Predictability of complex systems
Expectations and reflexiveness
Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
Experiment and simulation
Unrealistic assumption explanations
Consequences for traditional decision making
A historical perspective on economic forecast performance
Forecast performance in natural sciences
Predictability of complex systems
Expectations and reflexiveness
Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
Experiment and simulation
Unrealistic assumption explanations
Consequences for traditional decision making
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